BlackRock 2026 Outlook: Ethereum Leads Trillion-Dollar Tokenization Wave, Cryptocurrency Market Enters New Era of Institutionalization

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink announced to the world: “Tokenization is inevitable, and a universal blockchain is the future.”

This financial giant, managing over $14 trillion in assets, identified cryptocurrencies and asset tokenization as key market drivers in its published report, “2026 Theme Outlook,” and specifically emphasized Ethereum’s central role in this ecosystem.

Institutional Shift: From Speculative Assets to Financial Infrastructure

Wall Street’s perception of cryptocurrencies is undergoing a fundamental transformation. BlackRock clearly states in its report that the most valuable aspect of digital assets lies in their interaction with the “underlying” layer of the traditional financial system. The firm no longer views Bitcoin and Ethereum as purely speculative trading assets but as important financial infrastructure crucial for reshaping global capital flows.

The core evidence of this shift is the success of BlackRock’s own products. Its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), launched in just 341 trading days, surpassed $70 billion in assets under management, becoming the fastest-growing exchange-traded product in history.

“Stablecoins are no longer niche products; they are becoming bridges between traditional finance and digital liquidity,” said Samara Cohen, Head of Global Market Development at BlackRock, in the company’s market outlook.

The Tokenization Wave: A Financial Revolution in a Trillion-Dollar Market

Asset tokenization is regarded by BlackRock as the “next-generation financial market” core to this transformation. This process involves creating digital representations of traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate on the blockchain, enabling more efficient and transparent trading and settlement.

At Davos, Larry Fink highlighted the key advantages of tokenization: “If all investments are conducted on tokenization platforms, it will reduce costs and democratize access, allowing seamless capital flow between money market funds, stocks, and bonds.”

BlackRock is not just an advocate but also a practitioner of tokenization. Its March 2024 launch of the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund has grown into the world’s largest tokenized money market fund, with assets exceeding $2 billion, accounting for nearly half of the global tokenized U.S. Treasury market.

Ethereum’s Cornerstone Status: Over 65% of Tokenized Assets Carried on the Chain

BlackRock’s research emphasizes Ethereum’s critical role in the tokenization ecosystem. As of January 2026, approximately $1.25 billion worth of real-world assets are tokenized on the Ethereum blockchain, accounting for over 65% of the distributed market share.

The cryptocurrency community generally believes that the “universal blockchain” Larry Fink refers to is essentially Ethereum. This is not unfounded—BlackRock’s flagship tokenization fund, BUIDL, is built on Ethereum. Ethereum acts as the settlement layer for the entire ecosystem, where transactions are finalized, while daily transactions are handled by faster layer-2 networks. As the number of tokenized assets grows, this “base layer” role becomes increasingly important.

Market Expansion: Stablecoins and RWA as Dual Engines

The growth potential of the tokenization market is enormous. BlackRock’s report predicts that the stablecoin market size could reach $500 billion by early 2026 or even higher. This forecast aligns with other market observers. Joseph Chalom, Co-CEO of Sharplink Gaming, predicts that by the end of 2026, the total market cap of stablecoins could reach $500 billion, while the market for tokenized real-world assets could grow to $300 billion.

Notably, more than half of current stablecoin activity occurs on Ethereum. The migration of capital-efficient tools like stablecoins and RWA to on-chain platforms is seen as a key driver for increasing total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum.

Competitive Landscape: Ethereum’s “Toll Booth” Model and Market Challenges

BlackRock raises a thought-provoking question in its outlook: Can Ethereum serve as the “toll booth” for the tokenized economy? This metaphor positions Ethereum as an infrastructure role, not a direct prediction of ETH’s price.

Although Ethereum currently dominates in the field of tokenized assets, BlackRock also acknowledges that its market share faces challenges. The firm’s BUIDL fund itself employs a multi-chain strategy, operating across multiple blockchain networks including Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon. This indicates that while BlackRock is optimistic about Ethereum’s leading position as an institutional-grade RWA infrastructure, the future tokenization ecosystem may be multi-chain, with different blockchains excelling in specific use cases.

Market Status and Ethereum Data Performance

As institutional interest in Ethereum’s role in tokenization increases, its market performance is also closely watched. According to Gate.io data, as of January 23, 2026, Ethereum’s current price is $2,957.26.

From Gate.io data, Ethereum’s 24-hour trading volume reached $435.74 million, with a market cap of approximately $356.95 billion, accounting for 11.26% of the total cryptocurrency market cap.

Despite short-term price fluctuations, market analysis suggests that Ethereum’s average price in 2026 could remain around $2,956.74, with fluctuations within the range of $1,744.47 to $4,050.73. Looking further ahead, Ethereum’s price in 2031 could move to $5,048.83, representing a potential return of approximately +61.00% compared to the current price.

Future Outlook: The Fusion of Tokenization and AI Agents

Beyond tokenization itself, BlackRock also considers cryptocurrencies alongside artificial intelligence and geopolitical factors as part of a larger “transformational force.” This view aligns closely with other industry leaders.

Changpeng Zhao also pointed out at Davos that three key directions to watch are: tokenization, payments, and the integration of AI and cryptocurrencies. He emphasized, “Cryptocurrencies will become the native currency for AI agents.”

A16z’s 2026 outlook report further elaborates on this trend, stating that in “intent-driven” systems, when AI agents automatically transfer funds to meet demands, value must flow as quickly and freely as information.

This fusion could give rise to entirely new economic models, where intelligent agents can perform real-time, permissionless payments for data, computing resources, or API costs, without the need for traditional financial processes like invoicing, reconciliation, or batch processing.

According to Gate.io data, as of January 23, 2026, Ethereum’s trading price fluctuates between $2,906.06 and $3,038.5, with a market cap of $356.95 billion. Although its price remains below the all-time high of $4,946.05, the divergence between on-chain activity and institutional adoption may indicate that the market is accumulating energy for the next phase of value revaluation.

BlackRock’s BUIDL fund has surpassed $2 billion in assets under management, processing hundreds of millions of dollars daily in institutional fund flows. Meanwhile, over $1.25 billion worth of real-world assets have been tokenized on Ethereum as the preferred settlement layer. As the world’s largest asset manager reclassifies cryptocurrencies from “speculative tools” to “financial infrastructure,” a paradigm shift driven by stablecoins, tokenized assets, and AI agents is quietly reshaping the underlying architecture of the global financial system.