The recent gold market rally is indeed extraordinary. After breaking through $4,700, it surged all the way to $4,880 per ounce, hitting a new all-time high. The previous predictions that "the bullish momentum is exhausted and gold should fall" have been thoroughly beaten back by the market. This is no longer purely driven by technical factors; two powerful forces are actively pushing the trend.

First, let's look at the move by the Polish central bank. They announced an increase of 150 tons of gold reserves, raising their holdings from 550 tons directly to 700 tons. What does this mean? It directly surpasses the European Central Bank, placing Poland among the top ten global central banks in gold reserves. This move alone involved an investment of $23 billion. It’s not just a simple investment; it’s a signal—the global de-dollarization wave is gaining momentum.

To put it plainly, U.S. debt is piling up, the Federal Reserve’s independence is frequently questioned, and the dollar’s credibility is slowly eroding. What are central banks around the world doing? Gold has become the safest choice, a strategic asset with zero credit risk. Poland’s action is a microcosm of this global trend.

The key point is still ahead. The decision by Federal Reserve Governor Cook tonight will determine whether the Fed can maintain its independence. If he wins, the Fed’s independence remains intact, the dollar may rebound, and the demand for gold as a safe haven could decline, with profit-taking at high levels possibly leading to a sell-off. If he loses? The dollar’s credibility could be further damaged, de-dollarization accelerates, and reaching $5,000 per ounce for gold might not be a dream.

Probabilistically, the likelihood of Cook losing the case is low. That means the potential turning point for gold’s decline could be tonight. However, markets have always loved surprises, and whether the high of $4,880 is a historical peak or a new starting point remains uncertain.