【BTC Weekly Chart Structural Insights | Deep Pullback in the Long-Term Uptrend】

Structural Positioning and Long-Term Framework

From a weekly perspective, BTC remains within the long-term ascending channel established since 2023. The current price is $89,977, near the middle of the channel, also within a broad support zone formed by the key long-term moving averages MA50 (~$100,870) and MA100 (~$87,128). This correction can be viewed as a “strength test” of the long-term upward trend rather than its end.

Key Technical Level Analysis

1. Long-Term Trendline and Moving Average System:
· The price is still clearly above the long-term upward trendline (connecting the lows of 2023 and 2024), which is the foundation of the bull market structure.
· The key MA100 (~$87,128) and the previous weekly high platform (~$87,600) form a near-term core support zone. This area is critical for assessing whether the long-term trend remains healthy.
· Above, the MA50 (~$100,870) and MA20 (~$99,916) converge near the $100,000 mark, forming a strong medium-term resistance.
2. Key Price Zones:
· Bullish Defense Zone: $87,128–$87,600. This area is the “lifeline” of the long-term uptrend and must be defended. Holding this zone keeps the weekly bullish structure intact.
· Bearish Target Zone: If support is unexpectedly broken, the next key support will be in the $70,000–$72,000 range (previous weekly consolidation platform and channel lower boundary).
· Rebound Resistance Zone: $100,000–$102,000 (MA20/MA50 area), which is the mid-term dividing line between strength and weakness. Reclaiming this zone is necessary to restart the upward trend.
3. Momentum Indicator Signals:
· MACD Warning: The weekly MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, with DIF and DEA lines diverging downward, and the histogram turning green and lengthening (-1961). This is a clear signal that the upward momentum at the weekly level is significantly weakening, confirming the market has entered a mid-term correction cycle.
· RSI Status: Reading at 42.3, retreating from overbought territory to a neutral-weak position, providing room for price adjustment and indicating the market has not entered an extreme bearish sentiment.

Core Deduction and Strategic Perspective
The weekly chart offers a clear strategic outlook: the market is in a “mid-term correction within a long-term bull market.” The depth of this correction will test the robustness of the bull trend.

· Bullish Scenario: Price successfully stabilizes above the $87,100–$87,600 support zone and gradually digests the negative impact of the MACD death cross through time. Subsequently, it gradually rebounds and challenges the $100,000 mark again. This would be the healthiest trajectory.
· Deep Correction Scenario: Price breaks below the $87,100 support, testing the $80,000 and even $72,000 zones (channel lower boundary). This would be a longer and more complex correction, but as long as it does not break below the lower boundary of the long-term ascending channel, the long-cycle logic of the bull market remains intact.

The current strategy should focus on patience and observation, paying close attention to market behavior and volume changes around the “lifeline” support zone. Trend reversals at the weekly level will not happen overnight. #加密市场回调