【BTC 1H Structure Projection | The Directional Battle in the Moving Average Confluence Zone】#加密市场回调

Prices are oscillating near the $90,000 level, with the short-term moving average system (MA5 to MA50) highly converged within a narrow range of $89,400-$90,200. This dense entanglement of moving averages indicates that after the previous breakdown and decline, the bearish momentum has been fully released, and the bulls and bears are reaching a new short-term equilibrium in this zone, entering a sideways consolidation phase without a clear trend.

Core Structural Observations:

1. Moving Average System Positioning: The price is hovering within the entire short-term MA cluster, with MA5 (90028) nearly coinciding with MA10 (89932), and closely intertwined with MA20 (89584), MA30 (89493), and MA50 (89765). This suggests that the short-term average cost is highly concentrated, and any volume breakout in either direction could trigger a trend.
2. Key Boundary Definitions:
· Upper Resistance Zone: $91,398-$91,750. This area is the previous platform's lower boundary and the location of MA100, forming a strong resistance zone for rebounds. Only a valid breakout above this zone can reverse the short-term weak structure.
· Lower Risk Threshold: $88,810-$89,000. This zone is the recent oscillation box's lower boundary and the bottom of the moving average cluster. If broken downward, it indicates a tilt toward bearishness, potentially retesting the low of $86,222.

Momentum and Volume-Price Signal Analysis:

1. MACD Bullish Signal: The DIF line has strongly crossed above the zero axis, with the DEA line following closely, and the histogram bars continuing to grow in volume. This clearly indicates that the downward momentum on the 4-hour timeframe has been fully reversed, with the rebound momentum dominating, making it the most positive signal in the current structure.
2. RSI Neutral Pattern: The reading is 52.97, in the neutral zone, showing that market sentiment is stable and not overheated or oversold, providing technical space for both upward and downward price movements.
3. Volume Concerns: The current volume (VOL:102) has significantly decreased compared to the previous decline. Insufficient volume during the rebound may imply limited willingness to chase higher, with the upward move mainly driven by short covering. A volume-increasing bullish candle is needed to confirm the validity of the breakout.

Future Projection and Battle Focus:
The market is currently in a “consolidation phase of directional buildup within a balanced zone.” The key next step is to observe how the price reacts to the resistance zone above the moving average of $90,200-$91,000:
· Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks through with volume (significantly above 102) and stabilizes above $91,000, with MACD momentum maintained, it could challenge the resistance band of $91,800-$92,500.
· Bearish Scenario: If the price repeatedly encounters resistance around $90,200 without volume-driven breakout, and ultimately drops below $89,500 (the midpoint of the moving average cluster), it may form a “failed rebound” structure, returning to a weak oscillation or a secondary bottoming pattern.