【ETH 1H Structural Analysis | Re-entering the Moving Average Cluster, Entering a Critical Strength-Weakness Transition Zone】

#加密市场回调
The price has re-entered above the $3000 level and entered a highly dense moving average winding zone. MA5 (3017), MA10 (3013), MA20 (2991), MA30 (2984), and MA50 (3005) are almost all converging within a narrow range of 2980-3020 USD. This extreme moving average entanglement indicates that after the previous sharp decline, the market's bullish and bearish forces have reached a new, fragile dynamic balance at the current position.

Core Structure Positioning:
Currently, the price is floating within the entire moving average cluster, which causes it to lose clear support or resistance guidance from the moving averages. The market is in a “trendless chaos” state. The appearance of this structure is usually a transitional phase where the market seeks a new consensus after significant volatility.

Key Boundary Definitions:

1. Resistance/Observation Point Above: 3030-3050 USD. This area is the lower boundary of the previous small platform. If the price can sustain above the moving average cluster and break through this zone, the short-term structure will turn bullish, with potential to test the next resistance around 3118-3130 (near MA100).
2. Support/Danger Zone Below: 2960-2980 USD. This area is the overlap zone of the lower edge of the moving average cluster and recent oscillation lows. If the price falls below this zone, it will indicate a return to a weak pattern below the moving average cluster, possibly testing support below 2900 USD again.

Momentum and Sentiment Signals:
1. MACD shows an initial positive signal: The DIF line has crossed above the DEA line to form a golden cross and is running above the zero axis, with the histogram turning red and increasing. This is a technical confirmation that short-term downward momentum is waning and a rebound momentum is initially establishing.
2. RSI returns to neutral: Reading 51, having moved from oversold territory back to the neutral zone, providing room for both upward and downward fluctuations but not indicating strong unilateral strength.
3. Conflicting volume signals: During the rebound, trading volume (VOL) shrank to an extremely low level of 0.463, indicating that the current rebound is mainly driven by short covering or low-liquidity light buying, lacking active attack from large institutional funds. This is the biggest hidden risk to the sustainability of the current rebound.

Market Outlook and Focus:
The market is in a “quiet period before the direction choice.” The high cohesion of the moving averages indicates that short-term costs are highly aligned, and any volume breakout in either direction could trigger trend-following movements.
· Key verification point: It is necessary to observe whether the price can stabilize above $3000 and whether trading volume significantly increases to confirm the validity of the breakout. A volume-less rise is very likely to fail near the 3030-3050 resistance.
· Risk warning: If the price cannot break through with volume and instead falls below 2980, caution should be taken as this may be a “moving average rebound confirmation” during a downtrend, and the market could revert to a bearish trend.