Federal Reserve Chair Suspense Turns: Market Probabilities Shake Up, Who Is the Top Candidate?

Question

【BlockBeats】Trump recently revealed the latest developments in the Federal Reserve Chair selection process. After screening, the candidate pool has been narrowed down to two or three individuals, and he indicated that the final candidate is likely already decided. Among the nominated candidates, BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder and former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh are both considered suitable for the next Fed Chair. Meanwhile, Trump also expressed support for Haskett to continue serving as the Director of the White House National Economic Council.

This statement immediately triggered market reactions. Data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows changes in investor confidence in each candidate. The probability of Kevin Warsh being nominated has surged to 50%, making him the most favored candidate. Rick Rieder follows closely with a probability of 27%. In contrast, Haskett’s probability has significantly dropped to 5%.

The choice of the Federal Reserve Chair has a profound impact on global financial markets, which is why the market reacts so sensitively to such information. Different backgrounds and policy inclinations of the candidates could lead to variations in future monetary policy directions, thereby affecting the performance of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

GateUser-e87b21ee · Accepted Answer

Kevin Walsh's probability of directly doubling, Polymarket gamblers are starting to bet wildly again

Kevin Walsh is really steady, going from the list to 50%, no one else is at this pace

Trump's move has directly turned the market options upside down

Hassett went from a hot topic to the cold bench, changing faces at will, hilarious

The Federal Reserve Chair is just a political bargaining chip, the crypto circle is once again being led around by the nose

Now, let's wait and see if Walsh can finally rise to power

SelfRugger · Answer

Vosh is directly taking off this wave, a 50% chance is really incredible... But on the other hand, are these betting pools reliable?

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It's another Trump leak, the market follows suit and takes the bait, same old trick, brother.

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Did Kevin Vosh win big? But does the Fed Chair really have that much impact?

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Reidell still has a 27% chance, don't jump to conclusions too early.

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These probabilities change every day, who should I believe?

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Looking at Polymarket's data, it seems a bit shaky. Do investors really know what they're doing?

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Hasset dropped straight to 5%, such a big gap, it's hard to laugh...

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Wait, is this a bet on the Fed Chair? The crypto community really dares to play anything.

DegenRecoveryGroup · Answer

Wosh, this wave is about to take off, with 50% odds doubling directly. The market betting is really crazy.

Now it all depends on whether Trump will change his tune in the end. After all, his "final decision" is not the first time, haha.

Ridler is overshadowed by the identity of Heilad, and it feels like the suspense is not that big anymore.

The change of Federal Reserve Chair is the most popular topic for hype in the crypto circle. Let's wait and see, everyone.

Polymarket's market response speed is really fast. This is true democratic prediction, haha.

ChainWanderingPoet · Answer

Wosh's wave of probability surge, feels like there's insider information... Trump is playing psychological warfare again.

50% is too exaggerated, do gamblers really believe it?

That guy from BlackRock is pushed down to 27%, a bit unfortunate.

Hasset at 5%, hmm... it's cooling off.

The Federal Reserve Chair is so important, it depends on who Trump finally endorses.

If Wosh really gets in, how will the crypto circle react...

Now the odds can reveal who the final winner is.

This round of candidates is more exciting than watching a presidential election.

Feels like all positive news, will it directly boost the market?

LightningHarvester · Answer

WOSH has a 50% chance to take off directly. This pace is a bit fast... The prediction market has been making crazy bets these past two days. Is it real or fake?

BearMarketHustler · Answer

Vosh is taking off directly this time, a 50% chance is a bit of a gamble... Polymarket's data update speed is really a market indicator.

TokenTaxonomist · Answer

ah, so walsh suddenly jumps to 50% on polymarket... statistically speaking, that's a pretty aggressive repricing. let me pull up my spreadsheet real quick—the bid-ask spread on these prediction markets always tells the real story tho, not just the headline numbers. nobody ever talks about liquidity depth 🤔

Federal Reserve Chair Suspense Turns: Market Probabilities Shake Up, Who Is the Top Candidate?

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