Why Comparing Today’s BTC to 2022 Is Absolutely Unprofessional

Recently, some analysts have been comparing the current BTC price moves to those of 2022.

Yes, short-term price patterns might look somewhat similar.

But when you look at the long-term picture, the comparison is completely absurd.

From

• the long-term price pattern
• the macroeconomic background
• the investor composition and supply/holding structure

the underlying logic is fundamentally different.

In analyzing and trading financial markets, the BIGGEST mistake is solely focusing on short-term, surface-level statistical similarities while ignoring long-term, macro, and fundamental drivers.

Completely Opposite Macro Background

In March 2022, the U.S. was firmly in a high-inflation, rate-hiking cycle driven by:

• excessive liquidity during COVID
• triggered by the Ukraine war, which pushed inflation more violently

Risk-free rates were rising, liquidity was being systematically withdrawn, and financial conditions were tightening.

In that environment, capital’s primary objective was risk avoidance.

What we saw in BTC was essentially a high-level distribution structure during a tightening cycle.

Currently, the macro environment is the opposite:

• The Ukraine conflict is de-escalating (partly due to the U.S. efforts to reduce inflation and lower interest rates),
• CPI and U.S. risk-free rates are decreasing,
• More importantly, the AI technology revolution has greatly strengthened the likelihood that the economy will enter a long-term disinflationary cycle. Therefore, on a larger cycle, interest rates have already entered a rate-cutting phase,
• Central bank liquidity is being re-injected into the financial system,
• This defines the capital behavior as risk-on.

From the chart below, we can see that since 2020, BTC and CPI YoY changes have exhibited a clear negative correlation — BTC tends to decline during rising inflation cycles and rally during disinflationary cycles.

Under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term disinflation is a high-probability outcome — a view also echoed by Elon Musk, which reinforces our thesis.

From the chart below, we can see that since 2020, BTC has shown a strong correlation with the U.S. liquidity index (except for distortions in 2024 caused by ETF inflows). At present, the U.S. liquidity index has broken above both its short-term (white) and long-term (red) downward trendlines — a NEW UPtrend is in sight.

Different Technical Structures

2021–2022:

• A weekly M-top structure, typically associated with long-cycle market tops that suppress price for extended periods.

2025:

• A weekly break below an ascending channel. From a probabilistic perspective, this is more likely a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel.

Yes, it cannot be fully ruled out that this becomes a 2022-style bearish continuation.

However, it’s critical to note that the 80,850 / 62,000 zone experienced extensive consolidation and rotation.

That prior absorption provides a far superior risk–reward profile for bullish positioning:

upside potential meaningfully exceeds downside risk.

What Would Be Required to Recreate a 2022-Style Bear Market?

Several non-negotiable conditions would have to be met:

• A renewed inflation shock or a major geopolitical crisis similar in scale to 2022,
• Central banks resuming rate hikes or balance sheet QT,
• A decisive and sustained breakdown below 80,850.

Until these conditions are satisfied, calling for a structural bear market is premature and speculative, not analytical.

Recently, some analysts have been comparing the current BTC price moves to those of 2022.

Yes, short-term price patterns might look somewhat similar.

But when you look at the long-term picture, the comparison is completely absurd.

From

• the long-term price pattern
• the macroeconomic background
• the investor composition and supply/holding structure

the underlying logic is fundamentally different.

In analyzing and trading financial markets, the BIGGEST mistake is solely focusing on short-term, surface-level statistical similarities while ignoring long-term, macro, and fundamental drivers.

Completely Opposite Macro Background

In March 2022, the U.S. was firmly in a high-inflation, rate-hiking cycle driven by:

• excessive liquidity during COVID
• triggered by the Ukraine war, which pushed inflation more violently

Risk-free rates were rising, liquidity was being systematically withdrawn, and financial conditions were tightening.

In that environment, capital’s primary objective was risk avoidance.

What we saw in BTC was essentially a high-level distribution structure during a tightening cycle.

Currently, the macro environment is the opposite:

• The Ukraine conflict is de-escalating (partly due to the U.S. efforts to reduce inflation and lower interest rates),
• CPI and U.S. risk-free rates are decreasing,
• More importantly, the AI technology revolution has greatly strengthened the likelihood that the economy will enter a long-term disinflationary cycle. Therefore, on a larger cycle, interest rates have already entered a rate-cutting phase,
• Central bank liquidity is being re-injected into the financial system,
• This defines the capital behavior as risk-on.

From the chart below, we can see that since 2020, BTC and CPI YoY changes have exhibited a clear negative correlation — BTC tends to decline during rising inflation cycles and rally during disinflationary cycles.

Under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term disinflation is a high-probability outcome — a view also echoed by Elon Musk, which reinforces our thesis.

From the chart below, we can see that since 2020, BTC has shown a strong correlation with the U.S. liquidity index (except for distortions in 2024 caused by ETF inflows). At present, the U.S. liquidity index has broken above both its short-term (white) and long-term (red) downward trendlines — a NEW UPtrend is in sight.

Different Technical Structures

2021–2022:

• A weekly M-top structure, typically associated with long-cycle market tops that suppress price for extended periods.

2025:

• A weekly break below an ascending channel. From a probabilistic perspective, this is more likely a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel.

Yes, it cannot be fully ruled out that this becomes a 2022-style bearish continuation.

However, it’s critical to note that the 80,850 / 62,000 zone experienced extensive consolidation and rotation.

That prior absorption provides a far superior risk–reward profile for bullish positioning:

upside potential meaningfully exceeds downside risk.

What Would Be Required to Recreate a 2022-Style Bear Market?

Several non-negotiable conditions would have to be met:

• A renewed inflation shock or a major geopolitical crisis similar in scale to 2022,
• Central banks resuming rate hikes or balance sheet QT,
• A decisive and sustained breakdown below 80,850.

Until these conditions are satisfied, calling for a structural bear market is premature and speculative, not analytical.

Different Investor Structure

2020–2022:

• Retail-dominated market, limited institutional participation, especially from long-term allocators.

From 2023 onward:

• The launch of BTC ETFs introduced structural long-term holders, effectively locking up supply, sharply reducing trading velocity, and materially lowering volatility.

2023 marked a structural inflection point for BTC as an asset, both macroeconomically and quantitatively.

BTC’s volatility regime shifted from:

80–150% historically

• to
• 30–60%, a fundamentally different asset behavior.

Core Structural Difference (Now vs. 2022)

The biggest difference in BTC investor structure between now (early 2026) and 2022 is the shift from:

retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation

→ institution-dominated, structurally long-term holding.

In 2022, BTC experienced a classic “crypto-native bear market” driven by retail panic selling and cascading leveraged liquidations.

Today, BTC operates in a far more mature institutional era, characterized by:

• stable underlying demand,
• locked supply,
• and institutional-grade volatility.

Here’s a core comparison by Grok based on on-chain data (e.g., Glassnode, Chainalysis) and institutional reports (e.g., Grayscale, Bitwise, State Street) as of mid-January 2026 (BTC ~$90k–$95k range):

Different Investor Structure

2020–2022:

• Retail-dominated market, limited institutional participation, especially from long-term allocators.

From 2023 onward:

• The launch of BTC ETFs introduced structural long-term holders, effectively locking up supply, sharply reducing trading velocity, and materially lowering volatility.

2023 marked a structural inflection point for BTC as an asset, both macroeconomically and quantitatively.

BTC’s volatility regime shifted from:

80–150% historically

• to
• 30–60%, a fundamentally different asset behavior.

Core Structural Difference (Now vs. 2022)

The biggest difference in BTC investor structure between now (early 2026) and 2022 is the shift from:

retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation

→ institution-dominated, structurally long-term holding.

In 2022, BTC experienced a classic “crypto-native bear market” driven by retail panic selling and cascading leveraged liquidations.

Today, BTC operates in a far more mature institutional era, characterized by:

• stable underlying demand,
• locked supply,
• and institutional-grade volatility.

Here’s a core comparison by Grok based on on-chain data (e.g., Glassnode, Chainalysis) and institutional reports (e.g., Grayscale, Bitwise, State Street) as of mid-January 2026 (BTC ~$90k–$95k range):

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