How Competitive Are Prediction Markets, Really?

Farming has become a refined investment strategy, but not every project in the prediction market space is worth your time or capital.

Unlike zero-cost testnet activities, prediction markets typically require real funds to participate. While individual bet sizes are manageable, this pay-to-play requirement filters out many opportunistic script users but also exposes genuine users to the risk of losing their principal.

If you’re still unsure where to place your bets in 2026, this article analyzes your options across three dimensions: reasons to watch, competitive intensity (market data), and interaction cost-effectiveness.

Before diving in, please carefully review this risk management guide:

• Regulatory risks.
• Never participate with money you cannot afford to lose.
• Prediction markets are vulnerable to bot activity, manipulation, and insider trading.
• Successful participation requires sound judgment on news events, sports, or trends in the crypto industry.
• Review settlement rules thoroughly, including contract-designated information sources, whether deadlines include the current day, and potential wording traps.
• If you blindly place bets just to farm interactions, you’ll likely lose principal. Hubble AI data shows that “on Polymarket, the most active retail traders (mid-frequency) have the highest win rates, but due to capital efficiency constraints and lack of systematic advantage, their median actual returns are nearly zero.”
• Consider hedging: In uncertain markets, avoid one-sided bets and try cross-platform hedging. While price differences and slippage may erode profits, this approach minimizes one-sided risk and helps you focus on trading volume. Remember, no strategy eliminates risk—always evaluate carefully before acting.

Polymarket

Why pay attention?

• Industry-leading prediction market.
• Over $2.2 billion in total funding, including $2 billion in strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), parent of the New York Stock Exchange.
• Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber confirmed the POLY token and airdrop plans in October 2025.
• Approved by the CFTC to operate in the US, with a return to the American market underway.
• Strong expectations for a 2026 token launch and retrospective airdrop.

How competitive is it?

• Nearly 920,000 total traders—a massive user base.
• Monthly active users have exceeded 460,000 for three consecutive months, indicating stable engagement.
• Weekly trading volumes have topped $1 billion in recent weeks.
• Average trades per active wallet per day jumped from under 10 in December 2025 to a peak of 23 in early January, showing a surge in trading activity.
• By average bet size: 20.69% of users average under $10, 30.35% average $10–$50, 23.91% average $100–$500, and 0.24% average over $10,000 per bet.

Is it worth interacting?

Yes, but manage costs strictly. As a top-tier competitive project, its potential airdrop is highly attractive. However, Polymarket’s established user ecosystem means many legacy traders already hold a share of the airdrop allocation, so new users should carefully assess their risk-return profile. In October 2025, Bloomberg reported that Polymarket was in early fundraising talks at a $12–15 billion valuation—a more than tenfold increase from four months prior—reflecting growing market recognition.

Kalshi

Why pay attention?

• Nearly $1.6 billion in total funding. The latest Series E round in December 2025 raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, with Sequoia, a16z, ARK Invest, and Y Combinator participating. This doubled the $3 billion valuation from October 2025.
• Regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
• No official token or airdrop plans yet, but the community expects one due to Kalshi’s recent expansion into crypto.

How competitive is it?

• Total notional trading volume has reached $30 billion.
• Since August 2025, notional volume has surged, with recent weekly volumes between $1.5–2 billion and solid growth momentum.
• Nearly 130 million total trades, ranking among the most active in the prediction market sector.

Is it worth interacting?

Exercise caution—cost-effectiveness is low. There’s no clear token or airdrop timeline, creating uncertainty. Kalshi charges trading fees, making volume farming expensive, and its mature business model reduces the likelihood of token incentives, so the airdrop probability is relatively low.

Opinion

Why pay attention?

• Among the fastest-growing prediction markets, outpacing most of its peers.
• Selected for Yzi Labs’ 7th season MVB Accelerator Program in 2024.
• Raised $5 million in a seed round led by Yzi Labs in March 2025; disclosed additional multimillion-dollar funding in December.
• Launched mainnet and points system in October 2025, with clear airdrop expectations.

How competitive is it?

• Since October 2025, total notional trading volume has reached $15.3 billion, second only to Polymarket ($44.8 billion) and Kalshi ($30 billion).
• Current TVL exceeds $140 million.
• Over 170,000 total traders.
• Daily trading users topped 40,000 from late December to early January, with 10,000–20,000 per day over the past 10 days.

Is it worth interacting?

Highly competitive, but the airdrop expectation is clear and YZi Labs’ support is strong. Note: Weekly trading volume must exceed $200 to earn leaderboard points reliably. Point weighting factors include providing limit order liquidity, trading volume, and holding duration, so plan your interaction strategy carefully.

Predict.fun

Why pay attention?

• Selected for YZi Labs’ EASY Residency incubation program (second season) in December 2025.
• BNB Chain-native prediction market incubated and invested in by YZi Labs. Founder dingaling joined Binance in 2017 to build the research and listing team, led Binance Launchpad in 2019, and co-founded PancakeSwap in 2020.
• Integrates with Venus protocol, allowing users to earn yield on staked funds while waiting for results (for certain short-term markets).
• Features a points system with clear airdrop expectations.

How competitive is it?

• Total notional trading volume of $320 million, with over $200 million in prediction volume.
• 478,000 total trades, 36,000 unique traders, averaging 13 trades per user.
• Since mid-December, daily active users have mostly ranged from 2,000 to 4,000, indicating a relatively small user base.
• Current TVL is about $22.58 million.

Is it worth interacting?

Moderate to low competition. Unlike Polymarket, where most participants are experienced traders or institutions, most users on Predict.fun are betting to farm interactions. Accumulate PP points by trading, providing meaningful liquidity, and holding positions.

Probable

Why pay attention?

• Jointly incubated by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs, with strong industry credentials.
• Launched its points program on January 12, 2026; currently, points can only be earned through referrals.
• No trading fees.

How competitive is it?

• Since December 18, 2025, total notional trading volume has reached $560 million, with $380 million in prediction volume.
• 12,389 total users; from late December 2025 to early January 2026, daily active users ranged from 500 to 1,000, rising above 4,000 on January 14 and 15.
• 834,357 total trades, averaging 67 trades per user.
• Average trade size is $425, with an average total trading volume per user of $3,357.

Is it worth interacting?

Low competition. Probable launched in mid-December and remains in its early phase. Note: Referrers must complete at least $100 in trading volume before unlocking and generating an invite code. As a PancakeSwap-incubated project, its token will likely launch via CAKE.PAD and may even list directly on Binance.

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