Gate Research: BTC and ETH Rebound from Lows After Pullback | Ark Invest Predicts BTC at $762K by 2030

Summary

• BTC and ETH rebounded from their pullbacks with low-level recovery; rising risk-aversion sentiment drove funds toward stable altcoin sectors such as tokenized commodities, payments, and privacy.
• Solayer established a $35 million ecosystem fund to accelerate the launch of high-performance on-chain applications.
• Ondo expanded to Solana, adding tokenized stocks and ETF assets.
• Vitalik proposed a native Ethereum DVT solution; Mask Network took over the Lens protocol.
• Ark Invest’s “Big Ideas 2026” report predicts that by 2030, the total crypto market capitalization will reach $28 trillion, with Bitcoin priced at approximately $762k.

Market Overview

Market Commentary

• BTC Market Update — Over the past week, BTC stabilized at a low level following a sharp pullback, with prices consolidating around a key support zone. Short-term moving averages remain below mid- to long-term ones, indicating the trend has not fully reversed. However, MACD is rebounding from a low level and bearish momentum is weakening, suggesting a temporary relief in downward pressure and a transition into a recovery phase.
• ETH Market Update — ETH’s movement is similar to BTC, showing a rebound and recovery after the previous decline, currently oscillating above the previous low. The moving average system remains bearish, but the downward slope has eased. A bullish MACD crossover is forming, with momentum gradually improving. In the short term, ETH is showing signs of stabilization and is awaiting a directional breakout.
• Altcoins — Over the past week, capital has shifted toward non-trading sectors, with tokenized commodities, payments, and privacy-related segments performing relatively steadily. Amid mainstream asset consolidation, the market shows a preference for infrastructure assets with real-world mapping and long-term application certainty.
• Stablecoins — The total market cap of stablecoins currently stands at $309.2 billion, having increased by $572 million (approximately 0.19%) over the past week.
• Gas Fee — Ethereum network gas fees generally remained below 1 Gwei over the past week, with a peak of 2.32 Gwei in the highest hourly spike. As of January 22, the average gas fee for the day was 0.031 Gwei.

Trending Tokens

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a modest rebound, with major assets broadly turning upward, though overall market sentiment remains clearly cautious. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 20, falling into the “Extreme Fear” range, indicating that the price recovery has not yet effectively revived risk appetite. From a market structure perspective, BTC and ETH have rebounded by approximately 1.1% and 1.8%, respectively, providing the main support for the index. Other major coins like XRP and SOL also recorded gains of 1%–3%, presenting a general uptrend across the market. However, the overall gains remain limited and trading momentum is weak, suggesting the current move is more of an emotional recovery and technical rebound, with capital largely staying on the sidelines.

PIPPIN Pippin (+30.79%, market cap $364 million)

According to Gate market data, the PIPPIN token is currently priced at $0.36801, marking a 24-hour increase of over 30.79%. Pippin is an SVG unicorn IP project generated based on the latest ChatGPT-4o LLM architecture. It was founded by Yohei Nakajima, a well-known figure in the AI and venture capital space. His influence through open-source projects like AI for VC and BabyAGI has given Pippin significant attention and a strong foundation for viral growth since its inception.

This round of price increase was not accompanied by any notable official announcements or new community developments. It is more likely driven by renewed short-term capital interest in AI-related narratives and IP storytelling. With a relatively limited circulating market cap, sentiment-driven momentum and concentrated capital inflow have amplified price elasticity, resulting in a sharp upward move. Overall, the rally appears to be more of a short-term market play dominated by narrative-driven speculation.

ROSE Oasis Network (+23.32%, market cap $153 million)

According to Gate market data, the ROSE token is currently priced at $0.02041, marking a 24-hour increase of over 23.32%. Oasis Network is a decentralized blockchain network driven by Oasis Labs, positioned as a “cloud-computing blockchain platform” focused on privacy protection and high-performance demands. By separating the consensus and execution layers and integrating privacy-preserving technologies such as Trusted Execution Environments (TEE), it enhances on-chain computational efficiency while ensuring data security and privacy, enabling complex applications to operate within a blockchain environment across scenarios like data privacy, financial applications, and artificial intelligence.

This round of price increase is primarily driven by a resonance between narrative and events: on one hand, Oasis has been consistently emphasizing the value of “Trustless Privacy” and privacy computing in AI scenarios, while actively showcasing its ecosystem landscape and infrastructure progress; on the other hand, the project has signaled initiatives such as $ROSE buybacks, lowering usage barriers, and launching end-user-facing products. Against the backdrop of a relatively low circulating market cap, these developments have strengthened market expectations for its infrastructure value and long-term demand, leading to concentrated capital inflows and amplifying the short-term price surge.

ALCH Alchemist AI (+23.92%, market cap $95.71 million)

According to Gate market data, the ALCH token is currently priced at $0.11233, marking a 24-hour increase of over 23.92%. Alchemist AI is a multi-agent AI application platform designed for developers and creators. Its core capability lies in its proprietary multi-agent orchestration engine, which can simultaneously coordinate 16+ large language models and complete complex generation tasks through multi-layer real-time logic collaboration. The platform supports the direct creation of applications, games, and interactive content during the generation process, emphasizing a “what you see is what you get” experience.

This round of price increase has been driven by the resonance between product developments and narrative expectations: on one hand, the launch of Alchemist AI version 3.5 has enhanced its multi-agent and parallel inference capabilities, boosting market perception of its technological barriers and practical usability; on the other hand, the project has recently been actively signaling upcoming New Year tech upgrades, ecosystem partnerships, and integrations with platforms like Wikicoin. Coupled with the expectation that ALCH holders will receive product access rights, and given the relatively low circulating market cap, these factors have led to concentrated capital inflows and amplified the short-term price surge.

Highlights Data

BTC Facing Short-Term Pressure, Diverging Capital Structure; Long-Term Signals Remain Bullish

As gold and silver prices continue to strengthen, Bitcoin has pulled back in the short term to around $90,000, with the market on the surface showing a structural rotation of “safe-haven assets attracting capital, risk assets under pressure.” However, on-chain capital behavior suggests that the current pullback is more of a position restructuring than a shift to a bearish trend.

On-chain data shows that large addresses and long-term holders have continued accumulating during the pullback, while smaller retail wallets are showing notable reductions in holdings, reflecting a cautious sentiment amid short-term volatility. This divergence—retail selling while whales are buying—often appears at local bottoms or during consolidation phases, indicating that despite short-term price weakness, long-term capital inflows are continuing, forming a bullish medium- to long-term divergence signal.

Ondo Expands to Solana, Adds Tokenized Stocks and ETF Assets

Ondo Finance has announced that its subsidiary, Ondo Global Markets, has officially expanded operations to the Solana network, bringing over 200 tokenized stocks and ETF products to its approximately 3.2 million daily active users. This expansion not only enhances Solana’s capacity in the real-world asset (RWA) sector but also significantly broadens the range of traditional financial assets available for on-chain trading, further reinforcing Solana’s positioning as a high-performance blockchain for financial applications.

In terms of asset composition, the newly launched tokenized products span a wide array of categories, including tech stocks, growth stocks, and blue-chip stocks, as well as ETFs that track overall markets and specific sectors. The offering also includes more strategy-oriented tools such as leveraged long and short ETFs. In commodities and thematic investments, the products extend to ETFs related to gold, silver, and other major commodities, as well as trending sectors like artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, supporting the diversification of asset allocation and trading strategies within the Solana ecosystem.

Solayer Launches $35 Million Ecosystem Fund to Accelerate High-Performance On-Chain Applications

Solayer has announced the launch of a $35 million ecosystem fund aimed at supporting high-throughput, revenue-oriented on-chain application projects built on the infiniSVM architecture. The fund targets early- and growth-stage development teams, helping them create products truly suited for high-frequency execution on-chain and driving high-performance blockchain applications from proof-of-concept to large-scale deployment.

In terms of application focus, Solayer prioritizes scenarios that demand low latency, high execution efficiency, and continuous transaction processing capabilities. These include DeFi protocols, consumer-grade applications for mass users, payment infrastructure, and AI-driven systems requiring real-time execution and on-chain settlement. This strategy reflects Solayer’s ambition to leverage the performance advantages of infiniSVM to support application models aligned with real-world business needs. By using the ecosystem fund as a catalyst, Solayer aims to attract teams with clear revenue models and strong technical execution into its ecosystem, accelerating the formation of a sustainable on-chain application and capital cycle.

Weekly Focus

Vitalik Buterin: Exploring Native Integration of Distributed Validator Technology into Ethereum’s Staking Protocol Layer

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed the native integration of Distributed Validator Technology (DVT) into Ethereum’s staking protocol layer, referred to as “native DVT.” This design would allow validators (who must stake at least n × 32 ETH) to register multiple independent keys (with an upper limit of n ≤ 16) and set a threshold m (recommended m > n/2), forming an m-of-n threshold multisignature mechanism. Validator groups would participate in consensus as a single identity, requiring signatures from at least m independent nodes to complete attestations or proposals, while preserving slashing safety (which would require proof of ≥ m malicious conflicting votes). Compared to current DVT solutions that rely on external coordination—such as SSV and Obol—the native approach greatly simplifies operations. Users would only need to run n standard client nodes with almost no additional configuration, significantly reducing single points of failure and lowering reliance on large staking service providers.

The proposal aims to significantly enhance Ethereum’s decentralization by encouraging more medium- and large-scale holders to stake directly instead of delegating to centralized providers. This could improve key decentralization metrics such as the Nakamoto coefficient and Herfindahl index, while offering a safer self-custody option for institutional and conservative participants. Protocol-level integration would also support future signature schemes, simplify key rotation, and avoid the current DVT reliance on BLS linearity (which is potentially insecure under quantum computing).

The proposal is currently in the research discussion phase on ethresear.ch. While community feedback has been positive, concerns remain around consensus overhead, reward loss due to coordination failures, and limited coverage for small stakers. Further evaluation and consensus are needed before implementation can proceed.

Mask Network Takes Over Troubled Decentralized Social Protocol Lens

Mask Network has officially announced its takeover of the Lens Community (LC) as the new steward. Since its launch in 2022, Lens positioned itself as a pioneer in the Web3 social graph space. In its early days, it attracted significant speculative traffic through its NFT Profile system, with daily new account mints peaking in the tens of thousands and tens of thousands of daily active users. However, the bear market quickly deflated this bubble, and the exodus of speculators led to a sharp decline in activity, with many accounts becoming dormant.

Early Lens users had to pay gas fees for every high-frequency action—likes, posts, comments—on-chain. Although Lens later shifted these actions off-chain to reduce costs and latency, the optimization came too late, causing many users to abandon the platform due to the initial friction. Despite the promise of open, permissionless, modular infrastructure, Lens failed to address key issues such as consumer-grade user experience, onboarding for non-crypto-native users, and timely updates to creator incentives. As a result, the network effect never fully materialized.

Mask Network’s track record positions it as a promising candidate to break this deadlock. The team specializes in bridging Web2 and Web3 social platforms, including Twitter integration plugins, decentralized identity tools, and support for ecosystems like Mastodon. Their multi-chain social client Firefly and creator-centric platform Orb Club have already been deeply integrated into Lens, enabling features such as self-owned identities, token-gated content, and subscription revenue sharing.

With Avara (formerly Lens Labs) transitioning to an advisory role, Mask will now focus on intuitive product iterations, community culture development, and optimizing SocialFi monetization—rather than introducing new protocol primitives.

Ark Invest: BTC Projected to Reach $762k by 2030

In its annual report Big Ideas 2026, Ark Invest presents an optimistic outlook for the crypto asset market, projecting that by 2030, the total market capitalization will soar to approximately $28 trillion (with a compound annual growth rate of around 63%). Bitcoin is expected to maintain a dominant share of 60%–70%, reaching a market cap of $16 trillion. Under the fixed supply assumption of 21 million BTC, this corresponds to a projected Bitcoin price of about $762k.

The report positions Bitcoin as “digital gold,” benefiting from accelerating institutional adoption. By 2025, Bitcoin ETFs are expected to hold 12% of the total supply, public company holdings have grown by 73%, and corporate treasury exposure is expanding further. At the same time, Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decline, supporting its growing global recognition as a store of value.

Of the remaining market share, smart contract platforms are projected to reach a combined valuation of $6 trillion, with annualized revenue of approximately $192 billion. Key drivers include on-chain financial activity, tokenized securities (expected to exceed $11 trillion), and decentralized applications. However, the value is expected to concentrate in 2–3 Layer 1 platforms, which will rely more on store-of-value characteristics rather than traditional discounted cash flow models.

Funding Weekly Recap

According to RootData, between January 16 and January 22, 2026, a total of 13 crypto and related projects announced funding rounds or acquisitions, spanning sectors such as robotics, AI, payments, and ZK. Below are brief introductions of the top-funded projects this week:

Konnex

Announced a $15 million funding round on January 16, led by LD Capital. Konnex is a decentralized platform focused on robotics and AI. It builds a permissionless marketplace for LBMS/VLAS-LLMs (Large Behavior Models / Vision-Language-Action Systems – Large Language Models) to generate robotic motion for autonomous physical labor. Its core function allows robots to autonomously sign trustless contracts and obtain services from specialized decentralized robotic AI providers, advancing autonomy and collaboration in the robotics ecosystem.

Veera

Announced a $10 million funding round on January 16, led by Ayon Capital.

Veera is a crypto financial services platform focused on building an “on-chain neobank.” It integrates users’ earning, spending, investing, and lending needs into a single self-custodial mobile app. The platform centers around a passkey-driven, multi-chain self-custodial wallet with built-in anti-bot verification, emphasizing full user control over assets without custodians. Its flagship product, the Veera Card, is a prepaid card linked directly to on-chain balances.

Orochi Network

Announced nearly $8 million in funding on January 17, with investment from the Ethereum Foundation.

Orochi Network is a crypto infrastructure project focused on building verifiable data infrastructure. Its main goal is to address key blockchain challenges—data integrity, privacy protection, scalability, and data availability—using advanced cryptographic technologies such as ZKP (Zero-Knowledge Proofs) and FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption).

Next Week to Watch

Token Unlocks

According to data from Tokenomist, the next 7 days (January 23–29, 2026) will see several significant token unlocks in the market. The top 3 upcoming unlocks are as follows:

• BGB is set to unlock approximately $508 million worth of tokens, accounting for 20% of its circulating supply.
• H will unlock around $16.6 million, representing 5.8% of its circulating supply.
• MBG will unlock approximately $12.34 million, which makes up 18.9% of its circulating supply.

References

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
• DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
• Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker
• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/
• X, https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2014118347890106375/photo/1
• X, https://x.com/OndoFinance/status/2013982573572088224
• Solayer, https://solayer.org/resources/blog/solayer-launches-35-million-ecosystem-fund-to-back-high-throughput-revenue-driven-applications-on-infinisvm

Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

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