Wait another 4 years! Female stock goddess: Bitcoin's 2030 target is $760,000, with a market cap of up to $16 trillion

Ark Invest predicts that by 2030, Bitcoin’s market capitalization will reach $16 trillion, driven by institutional adoption, ETF expansion, and asset allocation shifts. The crypto market is expanding, with smart contract platforms becoming the second growth engine.

Led by the “female stock goddess” Cathie Wood, Ark Invest has once again released an astonishing forecast. According to the annual research report “Big Ideas 2026” published on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market will experience explosive growth over the next four years. By 2030, Bitcoin’s market cap is expected to surge to $16 trillion, pushing the overall crypto market size to $28 trillion.

If this prediction comes true, with the total supply of Bitcoin at 21 million coins, the price per coin would reach an astonishing $761,900. Compared to the current price of about $88,000, there is nearly a 765% upside potential.

Ark points out that Bitcoin is transforming into a mature “institutional-grade asset class,” with growth momentum mainly driven by large-scale adoption of public blockchains and a structural shift in capital allocation logic.

In Ark’s view, Bitcoin’s core positioning is as a “digital store of value,” also known as “digital gold” in the market. This narrative is benefiting simultaneously from increasing institutional participation, rapid expansion of Bitcoin ETFs, gradually decreasing volatility, and rising corporate buying.

Data shows that by 2025, Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holdings will increase significantly, with ETF holdings growing by about 20%, and corporate holdings increasing by 73%. Currently, these two forces control 12% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin.

The report predicts that over the next five years, Bitcoin will maintain its market dominance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 63%, growing from the current $2 trillion to $16 trillion.

Image source: Ark Invest

It is worth noting that Ark’s predictions for 2030 have been revised multiple times. Although last year they once set a bullish target of $1.5 million, they later lowered the forecast. Ark explains that this is because the adoption of stablecoins in emerging markets has exceeded expectations, replacing some of the safe-haven functions originally anticipated for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, due to the increase in the market value of physical gold, Ark has also raised the addressable market size (TAM) for Bitcoin as “digital gold” by 37%.

In addition to Bitcoin, Ark believes that the remaining market value of cryptocurrencies will mainly be supported by smart contract platforms like Ethereum. As on-chain finance and tokenization of securities become more widespread, by 2030, the overall market cap of smart contract platforms could reach $6 trillion, with a CAGR of about 54%, and annual revenue of approximately $192 billion.

Ark also points out that the smart contract market will likely see a “winner-takes-all” phenomenon in the future, with 2 to 3 leading Layer 1 blockchains dominating most of the market. These platforms not only have the ability to generate cash flow but will also be valued higher due to their “reserve asset” attributes.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: “Block Guest”
• Original title: “Ark Forecast: Bitcoin Target Price of $760,000 by 2030, Market Cap of $16 Trillion”
• Original author: Block Sister MEL