BAY will unlock $1.35 million worth of tokens within a week, increasing the circulating supply by 23%. Can the market absorb it?

Marina Protocol (BAY) is about to undergo a major token unlock. According to the latest news, BAY will unlock approximately 46.58 million tokens at 10:00 AM Beijing time on January 30, 2026, valued at about $1.35 million based on the current price. This unlock is significant, accounting for over 23% of the current circulating supply, which could exert pressure on the market.

How Large Is the Unlock

The key data for this unlock are as follows:

From the data, this unlock amount is nearly one-quarter of the current circulating supply, which is quite substantial. For a project with a market cap of only $5.8 million and an average daily trading volume of $1.94 million, such an unlock could put some pressure on liquidity and price.

Project Background: Tokens in the Early Stage

BAY is a token issued by Marina Protocol on the BNB Chain, launched in 2023 and only listed for trading on October 29, 2025. This means the project itself is still in a relatively early stage.

Looking at the supply structure, BAY has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with only 200 million currently in circulation, representing a circulation rate of just 20%. This design indicates that a large number of tokens are still to be unlocked, and similar unlocking events may occur frequently.

Price Trends and Unlock Pressure

Interestingly, BAY has performed well before this major unlock:

• Up 6.67% in the past 7 days
• Up 38.36% in the past 30 days
• Up 1.15% in the past 24 hours

The current price is $0.029012. Although it has dropped 11.14% in the last hour, this may just be normal fluctuation.

From this perspective, the market seems to have already anticipated this unlock, or investors are optimistic about the project’s future development. However, the actual performance after the unlock remains to be seen.

What to Watch For

The impact of this unlock on BAY mainly depends on several factors:

First, the token flow after unlocking. If the project team or early investors are unlocking and selling, their willingness to sell will directly affect the price. If the unlock is for ecosystem incentives or liquidity mining, the pressure may be less.

Second, the market’s absorption capacity. BAY’s average daily trading volume is $1.94 million, and the unlock value is $1.35 million, roughly half a day’s trading volume. If market participation is high enough, it may not cause significant shocks.

Third, the project’s subsequent developments. For a project that has been live for only three months, unlocking is often a test. If new ecosystem progress or applications are launched during the unlock period, it could offset selling pressure caused by the unlock.

Summary

This BAY unlock amount is about a quarter of the circulating supply. While not extremely large in absolute terms, for a project with a market cap below $6 million, it warrants attention. Recent price movements suggest the market has already priced in some expectations. The key will be the actual performance post-unlock and how the project team guides market sentiment. For BAY holders and followers, the week of January 30 is worth close attention.