From a macro perspective, the biggest variable currently remains the direction of international political games. The original expected pattern is changing, which directly affects the risk aversion sentiment of funds. Gold has already broken through $4,950 to hit a new all-time high, indicating the market's heightened tension. Recently, the US December economic data met expectations, allowing US stocks to continue their rebound, but the performance of risk assets tells a different story.

In terms of capital flow, the crypto market is experiencing an accelerated outflow. Data shows that last week, the net inflow of ETH was only about 140,000, while in just two trading days this week, it has already net outflowed over 170,000. This stark contrast clearly indicates how strong the market's risk aversion is—investors are gradually reducing their risk exposure to cryptocurrencies.

On the technical side, the short-term bottom for BTC has basically been confirmed. A rebound is expected next, but the strength may not be very significant. Based on the current pattern, this rebound could reach between $93,000 and $94,500. It is important to note that after the rebound, a longer-term decline is likely, especially the Bitcoin price range in the 7-digit area may become a key focus.

For trading strategies, short-term traders can participate in rebound opportunities, but risk points must be well set. If the rebound lacks sustained trading volume support, it is advisable to promptly shift to a bearish outlook. Altcoins generally follow the trend of mainstream coins, so caution should be maintained.